Sunday, February 26, 2012

Feb 24th CME Arriving Now. G2 Storm Expected

   Update 17:50 UTC Feb 27 2012 : 

The first signs of the CME from Feb 24th are now being seen.
ACE showed an increase in solar wind and density starting at 20:58 UTC
A G2 Geomagnetic Storm is expected.

Conditions from yesterday's CME impact continue into today, Feb 27, 2012.
Solar wind speed and density are slowly rising, and the Bz has now dipped into the negative.

ACE Data:
Solar wind is now at: 488.7 km/sec
Density is now at: 7.7 protons/cm
Max density reached: 36.3
@ 01:27 UTC Feb 27th

High latitudes be on the watch for auroras :)

We will be updating this report as conditions with this CME arrival change. Be sure to check back often.

Here we have the most recent images of the nict magnetosphere simulation

Friday, February 24, 2012

New Coronal Hole Created By Solar Tsunami

Image Credit: Solen
    Early today we reported there was a filament eruption and solar tsunami in the Northeastern region of the solar disk.

What we can see now is a new large Coronal Hole that was created by this solar tsunami. This new Coronal Hole was created  just to the West of where today's filament ejection/solar tsunami was and to the East of sunspot region 1421. As we can see on the images, this new Coronal Hole is quite large.
   Here, we can see what the solar disk looked like before the filament ejection and solar tsunami. Comparing this image to the one above (taken post solar tsunami) we can see where the new large coronal hole was created.
Winds from this new Coronal Hole should reach earth around Feb 26-28

Thursday, February 23, 2012

CME From Filament Channel Eruption

   A CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) can be seen on STEREO A and B this evening. The source is a Filament Channel in the Northeast region of the solar disk. This filament became unstable earlier today and finally ejected this evening at around 23:24 UTC Feb 23, 2012.
Most of the ejected mater looks to be directed to the Northwest and not Earth directed. More data is needed to decide for sure. Please check back for updates

Update 18:57 UTC Feb 24, 2012 :
 In the most recent SDO images, it appears that the ejection of this filament, has caused a destabilization
around the filament's southern base.
This destabilization on the solar surface caused a solar tsunami and a CME.This event is ongoing.

More updates on the way!

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

What is on SDO? SDO Eclipse Feb 21, 2012

   What do we see on the SDO images today? That would be a Lunar eclipse of the SDO (Solar Dynamics Observatory) satellite that was expected to happen today, Feb 21, 2012

As reported by the SDO team:
On Tuesday, February 21, 2012 we will again watch a lunar transit from SDO. Here is a video showing the path of the Moon as seen by the SDO instruments
(video at link)

Sunday, February 19, 2012

New Fast Growing Sunspot

   Today, a new fast growing Earth directed sunspot emerged in the Northern region of the solar disk . This new sunspot region will put an end to the 6 day streak of no significant solar flares and the flatlined Xray flux. We should see this new region named sometime today. Any events from this region over the next few days will be Earth directed.

   Here we can see this sunspot region as it appears in the very early hours of today. When we compare this image to the most recent image, shown above, we can see the extreme fast growth of this new sunspot region

Update 17:45 UTC - Feb 20, 2012 :

This new sunspot region was named region 1422 and now holds a chance for M and X class events
We are keeping a close watch on the solar activity & will report immediately with any significant changes.
Keep checking back :)

Sudden G1 Geomagnetic Storm

   A unexpected G1 geomagnetic storm is underway. A coronal hole wind stream coming in from a coronal hole located in the southern region of the solar disk reached Earth At 00:42 UTC Feb 19, 2012. At that time, the CH winds connected with Earths magnetic field causing the onset of a G1 geomagnetic storm with the Kp levels remaining at the Kp4-Kp5 level. Watch for auroras in the northern US states

NOAA Alert:

Space Weather Message Code: WARK05
Serial Number: 747
Issue Time: 2012 Feb 19 0424 UTC
WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Feb 19 0425 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Feb 19 0900 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 60 degrees
Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Weak power grid fluctuations can occur.
Spacecraft - Minor impact on satellite operations possible.
Aurora - Aurora may be visible at high latitudes, i.e., northern tier
of the U.S. such as northern Michigan and Maine.

Saturday, February 11, 2012

Return of Sunspot Regions 1402 & 1401

   Today, we see an increase in solar Xray activity with a a string of C class flares. C1.4, C7.9, C1.5, C2.7, C7.7, C5.3 and a C2.7. This is due to us seeing the return of old sunspot regions 1402 and 1401 as they appear just over the Eastern limb.
Old sunspot region 1402 has remained a strong sunspot region in it's rotation around the backside of the solar disk.
This region will be making it's official return tomorrow sometime, when it will be renamed by NOAA and given a new number.

Expect solar activity to increase as these regions rotate into a more Earth directed position.

Here is a list of M and X flares we seen from old sunspot region 1402 and 1401 on their last rotation in a Earth facing position

 X1.7 Flare on 1/27/2012 @ 18:33 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- CME produced ETA: 16:00 UTC Jan 30, 2012

M8.7 Flare on 1/23/2012 @ 03:59 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- LDE lasting 8hrs
- CME produced ETA: 22:00 utc Jan 24, 2012

M1.1 Flare on 1/23/2012 @ 03:04 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- LDE lasting 8hrs
- CME produced ETA: 22:00 utc Jan 24, 2012

M2.6 Flare on 1/19/2012 @ 15:30 UTC - Sunspot 1402

M3.2 Flare on 1/19/2012 @ 16:05 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- This was a double flare event
- LDE lasting 13hrs. starting 13:43 Jan 19 - ending aprox. 03:00 UTC Jan 20th
- CME produced ETA: 22:00 utc Jan 21, 2012

M1.7 Flare on 1/18/2012  @ 19:12 UTC - Sunspot 1401

M1.0 Flare on 1/17/2012  @ 04:53 UTC - Sunspot 1401

C6.5 Flare on 1/16/2012  @ 04:44 UTC - Sunspot 1402
- LDE lasting 4 hrs. starting 02:36 - ending 06:46
- CME Produced ETA Jan 20th 2012

M1.4 Flare on 1/14/2012  @ 13:18 UTC - Sunspot 1401

Tuesday, February 7, 2012

Sunspot Region 1410 LDE Flare In Progress

   There has been a slow steady rise in the Xray flux over the last few hours starting around 20:30 UTC. This is due to an ongoing flare around sunspot region 1410 located on the far western limb of the solar disk.

Update 00:09 UTC Feb 8, 2012 :
This LDE peaked at C7.3 and  is now on a slow drop, currently at C2.3

We will update on the flare situation as conditions change.
Keep checking back

Monday, February 6, 2012

ACE Tracking Difficulties Feb 6, 2012

   UhOh! We have some updated news about the ACE satellite that most of you may find interesting. For about the next week, we will not have reliable data fron the ACE satellite. The following news post was made today by NOAA

2012-02-06 19:01 -  ACE Tracking Difficulties

SWPC’s partners that track the ACE satellite have begun to see problems with tracking ACE.  The orbit of the ACE spacecraft is about to take it directly in line with the Sun, as seen from Earth.  This will happen on February 8th, but ACE is already so close to the Sun that ground stations are having trouble.  The Sun acts as a radio noise source, making the signal from ACE difficult to discern above the solar noise (also known as solar Radio Frequency Interference).  This has resulted in intermittent availability of the ACE solar wind data.  This situation will get worse over the next two days and will then improve over the next several days as the ACE spacecraft moves away from the Sun-Earth line.  Models that depend on the ACE solar wind data will also be affected (e.g. the Wing Kp Geomagnetic model).  These problems are temporary, but are expected to continue for the next 4 or more days.

M1.0 Flare from Region 1410

   Sunspot region 1410 has produced a M1.0 solar flare peaking at 20:00 UTC Feb 6, 2012
We will monitor to see if there was a CME produced in association with this M flare.